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Commentary;
The math is this simple; with Yisrael Beiteinu in the government, the regime controlled 78 Knesset seats. Without Lieberman’s 11 member faction, the number stands at 67. IF Shas follows suit and its 12 MKs leave, the Olmert regime falls to 55; below the majority of 61 needed to govern. Meretz, with their 5 seats could join but Olmert would still be short of majority by one seat. Meretz, with their concerns over the handling of the Lebanon conflict as well as economic concerns, might also not join, but support Olmert’s division of Jerusalem from the outside.
The Pensioners, a new faction, don’t seem much inclined toward coalition bolting for dire fear of new elections. As Shinui showed previously, they reached their zenith with Sharon’s reelection, bolted the government in the months before the expulsion and evaporated completely from the scene by the time the current regime took over.
If Shas opts to remain in the governing coalition, then as covered previously on this blog, if Gimmel chooses to grab for the money which is dubious that they’ll ever see, and again becomes the enablers of the division of Jerusalem and abrogation of Yehuda and Shomron, the coalition would the number 73.
For Olmert, if all else fails to keep the tyrant in power, look for him, should his faction be reduced to 55, to rely on the Arab parties, with their 10 seats, for backing. MB
Lieberman Quits Government, by Avi Tuchmayer (Israel National News)
Excerpts;
Strategic Affairs Minister and Yisrael Beiteinu party (Israel Is Our Home) head Avigdor Lieberman has just announced that his party is quitting the government.
Lieberman informed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Wednesday that he would resign his position as Minister for Strategic Affairs and lead his party out of the ruling coalition to protest negotiations over so-called “core issues” with the Palestine Liberation Organization: Jerusalem, final status borders and children and refugees of Arabs who left their homes during Israel’s 1948 War of Independence.
Lieberman Expected to Puit Coalition Wednesday Morning, by Gil Hoffman (Jerusalem Post)
Excerpts;
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s coalition appeared to be crumbling on Tuesday when Israel Beiteinu head Avigdor Lieberman held an ill-fated meeting with Olmert and Shas warned that it could leave soon, as well.
Aware that Shas would soon be the only right-leaning member of the government, the party’s mentor, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, issued a directive Tuesday for it to leave the coalition as soon as serious negotiations begin on the fate of Jerusalem.
Shas chairman Eli Yishai, currently visiting China, informed Lieberman of the rabbi’s new instructions in a phone call. Lieberman did not tell Yishai whether or not he would resign from the government.
UTJ, Meretz Split on Joining Government, by Gil Hoffman (Jerusalem Post)
Excerpts;
UTJ MK Avraham Ravitz said that under the right conditions, he believed he could persuade his faction to join. However, his party colleague Litzman said he would recommend to his rabbis against joining the government, because of its diplomatic policies and due to cuts in child allotments.
“There’s no reason to save this government,” Litzman said.
Meretz MKs were also divided about whether their party could join the government and under what circumstances. Party chairman Yossi Beilin and the front-running candidate to succeed him, MK Haim Oron, were more open to the idea than the other two candidates, MKs Zehava Gal-On and Ran Cohen.
“We in Meretz will not crown Netanyahu and the Right,” Beilin said.
“If Israel Beiteinu leaves, Meretz’s path to the government is still not paved, because of Olmert’s responsibility for the war and for the government’s policies on matters of religion and state, the judicial system and the widening socioeconomic gap. But Meretz will back any step that would advance chances for peace in the region.”
Oron said that as long as Lieberman was not in the government, Meretz could join. He said he would have no problem sitting in a government with Shas as he had when Labor chairman Ehud Barak was prime minister.
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