Jewish Demographic Momentum By Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid, and Michael L. Wise
Excerpts;
Arab Demographic Momentum has become part of the Israeli lexicon. In this theory, population growth in the Arab sector will overwhelm the Jewish population as ‘baby boom’ generations give birth to an even greater number of children. Arab births will accelerate even if birth rates remain stable or drop slightly, because such a large number of women will enter their childbearing years.
But the evidence is now in: demographic momentum exists — but the momentum is occurring among Jews, not Arabs. Not only has the momentum not occurred in the Arab sector, but Arab birth levels have begun to fall, while births for Jews are continuing to grow.
Jewish births grew rapidly, from 80,000 per year in 1995 to 96,000 in 2000 and to over 105,000 in 2005. The first three months of 2006 already show Jewish births running at an annual rate of 107,600 births…. While the ultra-Orthodox contributed to this rise, secular Israelis and the immigrants from the FSU also experienced increasing fertility. When Aliyah and returning Israelis (averaging over 20,000 per year from 2001 to 2004), are added to the mix, the demographic weight of the Jewish sector grows even further.
In contrast, the absolute number of births in the Israeli Arab sector grew from 36,500 births in 1995 to 40,800 in 2000 and has stagnated at the 41,000 level for five straight years. In 2005, the number of Israeli Arab births fell markedly to 38,800. The overall Israeli Arab fertility figure (which includes Israeli Muslim and Christian Arabs, and Druze) declined from 4.4 in 2000 to 4.0 in 2004 and will likely show another drop when the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics releases its fertility calculation for 2005.
From 1995 until today, the Jewish percentage of total births in Israel has risen from 68.8% to 75.0% of total births in the country.
The problem with demographic predictions is that they apply yesterday’s or today’s fertility rates to tomorrow’s forecast. However, earlier childbearing patterns may have little relationship to the number of children the next generation will have.
Demographers had concentrated on past patterns in the Arab population, while they were blinded to evidence of a slowdown in the Arab sector and the demographic revolution already being measured among Jews. By focusing on the past, forecasters anticipated demographic momentum in the wrong sector and produced an outlook that couldn’t even get the present correct, let alone the future.
To read the entire article, click Jewish Demographic Momentum
Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid, and Michael L. Wise are authors of Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap, recently published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel. “Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025” debuted at the Herzliya Policy Conference in Israel and at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC.