The War of Cities / Sderot-Gaza, Baghdad-Tehran, by Amir Oren (Haaretz)
Excerpts;
If a foreign planner, free of preconceptions, were to be asked to suggest solutions to the problem of the rockets being fired from Gaza, he would certainly demand considering the return of the IDF ground forces to the Gaza Strip, or at least to its northern sector, from which the range of the rockets reaches the outlying areas of Ashkelon to the north.
Taking control of this sector, to the point of erecting a fence within it, would be costly and would create other problems, but it would solve the problem of the Qassams – until the range of the rockets is increased, or until masses of Katyushas and Grads are imported.
The foreign planner would be sent home, because the first constraint of military planning is political: The government of Israel refuses to admit the failure of the idea that is at the basis of the military evacuation of Gaza.
The idea of the government of former prime minister Ariel Sharon, his defense minister Shaul Mofaz and his deputy Ehud Olmert was to get diplomatic and security returns on the full evacuation of the settlements and military forces: diplomatically, in international support (including the illusion of America’s agreement to the settlement blocs in the West Bank), and – should the need arise – foreign understanding of a large military operation against unruly Gaza; security-wise, in the Palestinian regime’s actions against anyone who through opening fire endangered laboriously accumulated achievements, most of all the liberation of Gaza.
To ensure that there would be no Israeli remorse about the evacuation plan, both Abu Mazen and the Hamas scrupulously maintained a truce while the evacuation was being implemented.
Lieberman Calls Realignment a ‘Catastrophe’
Full Text;
Israel Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman on Saturday called Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s realignment plan a “catastophe,” and warned that the result would be the spread of rocket fire as far into Israel as Tel Aviv.
Lieberman said that Israel should adopt a policy of “an eye for an eye,” and added that it was “ridiculous” for Israel to keep supplying the Palestinians with electricity.
Convergence to Combat Lines, by Ze’ev Schiff
Excerpts;
It is possible that Israel will maneuver itself into a unilateral implementation of Prime Minister Olmert’s convergence plan. It is important to clarify to the public that the chances are the convergence lines will be Israel’s new combat lines. That is what happened with the lines of the disengagement from Gaza: They turned into new combat lines. It is natural that Hamas chalked up a military achievement as the group that employed force and pushed Israel into the withdrawal. That is how things look to the Palestinians. Hamas’ election victory only magnified its triumph. The disengagement may have shortened the IDF’s lines and saved money, but the savings will be spent on defensive fortification of the communities around Gaza.
With a new unilateral convergence, Israel will give up on the demilitarization of any Palestinian territory from which it retreats. It will give new momentum to Hamas, not to Abbas. And it will endanger Jordan and the Hashemite regime. Jordan is beseeching Israel not to act unilaterally. It understands that unilateralism would mean a continuation of the fighting, and that could increase instability in Jordan.
Once the withdrawal lines turn into new combat lines, it will only be a matter of time until the IDF moves into the towns and cities of the West Bank in full force. All it would take is one Kassam landing at Ben-Gurion International Airport. Kassam rocket attacks on Israel’s coastal towns are a strategic threat.
Coordinate the Realignment, Ami Ayalon (MK Labor)
Excerpts;
The message the prime minister has received during his trips abroad obligate Israel to shift from unilateralism to coordination. Otherwise the plan will not enjoy international endorsement, which is crucial.
In addition, the flare-up in the Gaza Strip and continued shelling of our southern towns have lent weight to the argument that Israel cannot simply quit most of Judea and Samaria and expect its security situation to improve. The bitter experience of last year’s Gaza disengagement teaches us that Israel must work in sync with the Palestinians in order to avoid a repeat of the Gaza aftermath. The answer is to take the road map off the shelf and dust it off.
Commentary;
Apparently Ayalon is making reference to what has previously been written about on this blog, “Bilateral Expulsion.” That is; Israel retreats, lopping off of the “Roadmap” the provision calling for “pa (sic)” compliance in eliminating terror attacks, while leaving open the question as to what happens in the void that such a retreat creates. You’ll be hearing more about this mutant concept in the coming weeks and months.