The Election Post-Mortems Begin …

Final Tabulation of Election by Week’s End

Full Text;

Election committee officials reported earlier on Wednesday morning that the absolute final tabulation of the 17th Knesset election will not be available until Friday morning.

Among the ballots that still have to be counted are those of soldiers, members of the diplomatic corps and government employees stationed abroad, those of Gush Katif evictee families, and some ten ballot boxes from certain districts as well as ballots from areas in Judea and Samaria.

Commentary;

How substantial are the votes that fall into thsese various categories? Will there be enough votes among the Gush Katif families, the 10 ballot boxes [why weren’t they counted on election night?] and ballots from areas in Judea and Samaria [ditto on the previous question]?

Might they give the National Union or Likud a couple of more Knesset seats or push Hazit over the threshold? MB

Fundamentally Freund: The Election Outcome – What it Means, by Michael Freund

Excerpts;

The results of Israel’s elections are in. It will take some time for the dust to settle, and for the demands of the various factions to become clear. But at this stage, it is worth noting the following key points regarding the outcome:

1 – Olmert did not receive a mandate for further withdrawals.
2 – The anti-religious left was nearly wiped off the political map.
3 – The electorate is growing increasingly disenchanted with “politics as usual”….

Why They Lost, by David Bedein

Excerpts;

The Likud and Israel’s National Union-National Religious Party lost because they gave the impression to the Israeli public that they cared only about themselves.

The disastrous results for the Likud and Israel’s national-religious camp in the Israeli elections conveyed a clear message to the people who are associated with those two sectors: you are arrogant and you have isolated yourselves from the people of Israel.

The outreach campaign of the National Union and the national-religious camp articulately addressed the suffering of Israelis who were evicted from their homes in Gush Katif and Samaria; yet, they were without a word as to the suffering endured by economically depressed Israeli development towns that border Gaza in the Negev, which now live under daily artillery bombardment as a direct result of Israel’s hasty retreat from Gaza six months ago. Pleas with the leadership of the Likud and the National Union-National Religious Party to hold public meetings with the victims of artillery attacks in the S’derot area fell on deaf ears.

As far as the Likud is concerned, its fate was sealed in the spring of 2003, when Binyamin Netanyahu, as the minister of finance, slashed special public fund allocations for pensioners, for handicapped people and for children. When Netanyahu’s director general was confronted with how the cut in child allowance would cause working families to lose vital income that they need for basic sustenance, his answer was that “they should go out to work.” When confronted with the fact that the cutback of the child allowance affects people who are at work, his answer, once again, was that “they should go out to work.”

12 Parties to Enter Knesset

Full Text;

Only 12 parties entered the Knesset following Tuesday’s elections, a reduction from previous years attributed to the new minimum entrance restrictions. The new legislation limited participation in the Knesset to parties that held two or more mandates.

Leading up the list of just-under-the-minimum parties was the Green Party, which would have been borderline under the old system with around 1.3% of the vote.

Behind them, came the pro-drug legalization Green Leaf Party with 0.8%. Ultra-right wing settler leader Baruch Marzel’s Jewish National Front, former security chief Uzi Dayan’s Tafnit Party and the two secular parties, Shinui and Hetz, all earned fewer than one percent, with Shinui earning one-tenth of one percent.

Commentary;

On the day after a seemingly disasterous election, none of us can claim to know Hashem’s “vast, eternal plan.”

But there seem to be some silver linings, whther or not we can project them to trend.

– We are rid of Yosef “Tommy” Lapid and his Shinui Party. His was a meteoric rise followed by a free-fall to oblivion, a lesson; divine retribution for his attacks on and attempts at destroying the religious, hopefully not lost on Avigdor Lieberman.

– Olmert and Kadima will have to work to put together a coalition. With Kadima having just 28 mandatim, they are the second smallest party ever to attempt to form a government.

As was brought out last evening, when Ehud Barak and Labor were elected in May, 1999 with 26 mandatim, his government lasted but 18 months. The same could happen here. Take note, Kadima seems already to have made Ministerial commitments, many of which may have to be gone back on in order to accommodate Labor; for example Avraham Hirschson may not be too enthralled with relinquishing the Finance Ministry to Amir Peretz. And Chaim Ramon, and Dalia Itzik apparently felt that in leaving Labor, she’d be swept to a Cabinet Post on Peres’ coat tails. Once again, all loose cannons, T.O.-style set to go off with disagreement. The victory cigar of overconfidence may just backfire. MB

Kadima May Have to Forfeit More Portfolios than Planned

Excerpts;

MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (Labor) told Israel Radio on Wednesday that it would not be possible to form a coalition without his party. Both he and Party Chairman Amir Peretz said Labor’s main demands would center around socio-economic issues.

Following the much smaller gap than expected between Kadima and Labor, the ruling party reportedly started considering the possibility of appointing at least two Labor MKs to senior ministries. The Labor Party should expect to have three fewer ministers than Kadima. Labor Chairman Amir Peretz, former chief of the Histadrut labor federation, said that his party would demand many of the domestic ministries affecting social welfare.

Sources close to Olmert expressed concern on Wednesday regarding the financial implications of including Labor, Shas, or Gil in the coalition. While the latter party’s platform was not as known as the former two, Labor and Shas were both expected to demand increasing subsidies for Israel’s weaker sectors.

The unexpected elections outcome would probably leave many Kadima MKs disappointed, as they were promised many more ministerial positions than what they will probably receive under the new constellation. Olmert promised MK Shimon Peres a ministerial position overseeing development of the Negev and the Galilee, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was tentatively granted the position of deputy prime minister, as well as any ministry she choses. Also, former Interdisciplinary Center head Uriel Reichman was expected to be appointed to the Education Ministry.

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