Weekly Commentary: Thinking Through Retreat, by Aaron Lerner Date: 23 March 2006
Excerpts;
What happens if Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert succeeds next week in getting enough votes to put together a stable “retreat coalition”?
According to Olmert, once Israel determines that the absence of a Palestinian partner renders the Roadmap irrelevant (a determination that can be made in 60 seconds) his team would negotiate and implement an Israeli retreat from most of the West Bank.
These talks would take place both within Israeli society and with various foreign countries out of an interest in imbuing the retreat line international recognition.
Mr. Olmert has been careful not to specify where the retreat lines will be but has indicated that some major settlement blocs would be retained by Israel.
This is not the first time that the Israeli public has been assured that the reward for retreat would be international recognition of the “settlement blocs.”
The goal of the Olmert retreat is ostensibly to reduce Israeli casualties by retreating from areas where there is considerable “friction”.
And since the contours of the Olmert retreat would also be driven by “friction avoidance” it follows that the Palestinians would do everything in their power to apply “friction” to induce greater withdrawals.
Put simply: the Olmert team would reward Palestinian terror with ever deeper retreats.
A vote for Kadima isn’t a vote over nuance. It isn’t a vote over personalities. A vote for Kadima is a vote for retreat to temporary lines that will only invite Palestinian terror to induce further retreats.
