Likud Paying Huge Price in Lost Votes for Bibi’s Demotion of Feiglin

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Commentary:

The Jerusalem Post’s Gil Hoffman reports Binyamin Netanyahu has apparently engaged Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu in a battle to regain votes for his Likud party as polls indicate that the gap between Likud and Kadima is narrowing while Yisrael Beiteinu’s popularity is mounting. Hoffman notes that;

According to a Ma’agar Mohot poll broadcast on Channel 2 last night, the Likud has lost six seats, including three to Israel Beiteinu… The poll showed Israel Beiteinu receiving 19 seats.

Netanyahu reached out to voters who intend to cast their ballots for Israel Beiteinu by reassuring them that a vote for the Likud would guarantee Lieberman a senior ministry. He spoke to Lieberman’s core constituency at a massive rally at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds in which his speech was translated into Russian.

“If you vote for another party, the Likud will be weakened, but if you vote for Likud, I will be prime minister and make Lieberman an important minister in my cabinet and build a strong government,” Netanyahu told the crowd.

Sources close to Netanyahu said his strategy would be to persuade voters who wanted “a two for one vote” that would strengthen both Netanyahu and Lieberman that they had to vote for Likud. They cited statistics that the overwhelming majority of Israel Beiteinu voters wanted Netanyahu to be prime minister and Kadima overthrown.

In an address at the Herzliya Conference at the Inter-Disciplinary Center, he made a point of indirectly mentioning Israel Beiteinu.

“If I’m elected I intend to unify all the central forces in the nation to create a national unity government that is as wide as possible,” he said. “I will first approach our traditional partners to unite the national camp – veterans and newcomers, secular and religious. But that’s not enough. We have to unite the people as a whole. I’ll approach all the Zionist parties and ask them to the join the national unity government.”

But is indeed fascinating what Netanyahu is saying now in light of his actions dumping Manhigut Yehudit’s Moshe Feiglin from his primary-won 20th slot to the 36th spot and bumping other Likud rebels to slots in the high 30’s from the slots they achieved by virtue of the Likud primary vote.

This blog has, until now, been extremely reluctant to give pre-election polls any credence. But the direct consequences of dumping Feiglin and other Likud rebels down to unrealistic spots to the Likud election position are stark.

On 11 December, 2008, having gotten a huge popularity bump from the their primary vote 3 days earlier, Likud’s poll popularity reached its highest at between 34-36 Knesset seats. On 12 December, this blog and other sources reported Feiglin’s being dropped to the 36th slot on the Likud list. The subsequent polls up through today (search term = polls 7 December, 2008 through 5 February, 2009) have clearly shown Likud’s unreversed decline from it’s initial high-water mark. Today’s polls show that Likud would garner 24-27 madatim if today were election day.

Bibi’s rationale that Feiglin in the 20th slot on Likud’s list with other Likud rebels in slotted in the 20s would turn away “centerist” votes appears abjectly flawed and appears as a big reason why Bibi is now running hither and from promising anyone anything in a mad dash for votes. Were these individuals maintained in the slots they won in the primary, Netanyahu could have emerged the biggest victor of the politicized Gaza operation rather than having a boastful Ehud Barak so full of himself as to float the ridiculous “suggestion” of a 48 kilometer tunnel connecting between Gaza with Judea “with Palestinian control of the traffic.”

Bibi could have then made credible promises; Jerusalem remaining united, toppling Hamas in Gaza with the voters knowing that this time, a Likud prime minister is bolstered by a solid right-wing Likud Knesset representation which would hold him true to his word.

As things stand now, where it is not expected that slots beyond #28 would actually make Knesset; the promises, while sounding Jewish about Jerusalem, appear empty, meaningless and lacking credibility unless Likud sees a major swing back to gain at least 8 more Knesset seats between now and election day on Tuesday, 10 December.

Please note that a large ad, sponsored in part by the grassroots Mattot Arim (Cities of Israel) and an Australian group pressing for a “United Torah Bloc”, recently placed an ad in the print Jerusalem Post stating that only 4 political entities; Yisrael Beiteinu, the National Union, the Jewish Home and Shas (???) have signed on to saying NO to a Palestinian State. Noticeably absent from this short list is Likud and the so-called “Torah party” Agudas Yisrael. And whether Shas, knowing their past deficient record, will actually honor their statement against a PA state is open to great doubt.

This author is watching events closely. Among that being watched is what happens regarding the popularity of the reconstituted National Union. MB

To read the full Jerusalem Post report, click here:

Bibi Battles Israel Beiteinu for Votes, by Gil Hoffman (Jerusalem Post)

Wednesday War News:

IDF Troops Kill Armed Palestinian [After He Ignored Warning Shots, Tried Throwing Grenade at Soldiers] on Border with Gaza

Olmert Approves Transfer of NIS 170 Million to Gaza Strip [Reward for Rocket, Mortar Ceasefire Violations]

Israel Intercepts Lebanese Ship Bound for Gaza [Inspects for Contraband, Weapons, Ammo, Supplies for Hamas], by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu (Israel National News)

Molotov Cocktail Thrown at Bus Near Bethlehem [No Injuries, Bus Damaged]

Shots Fired at JNF Tractor Park Near Afula

IDF Eliminates Islamic Jihad Leader [South of Jenin — Found Ammunition Clips, Explosive Device in House]

IDF Arrests Three Palestinians [Terrorists]