The Unreliability of Polling Stats in Israel …

Likud: Olmert’s Interview Will Hurt Him

A friend wrote comments in an email which are deemed appropo for inclusion here;

“I am still hoping for and would not be surprised by election results very different than the polls due to the well-known reasons; size of polling data, leftist slant and undecided people, and many people who will eventually vote Likud and Labor instead of Kadima due to longstanding loyalties.”

“There is one more reason I would like to add: Incompetence. Olmert, Livni, Ezra and the Kadima gang are NOT top-level people (maybe with the exception of Olmert) and they have risen to their level of incompetence. In fact they jumped to their current level due to very unusual circumstances and not due to “promotion” due to good service at their previous levels. Therefore we have been seeing policy and campaign mistakes on their part due to hubris and general lack of competence. This will hopefully cause them to continue to sink in the polls.”

Only 44% of Young Israelis Plan to Vote

Excerpts;

“The general elections are three weeks away, but young Israeli voters are not particularly excited by the upcoming vote, a new survey shows.”

“A special poll by the Kol Ehad (One Voice) movement show worrying figures: Most young voters today are not at all interested in the elections, Israel’s leading newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported.”

“The poll, conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute, found that among 503 Israelis aged 18-32, only 44 percent are planning to cast their ballots on Election Day.”

“Females and immigrants display an even greater level of apathy: 59 percent of young women and 72 percent of immigrants said they are not planning to vote.”

“Some 52 percent of respondents – 77 percent of them secular – admitted that the elections did not interest them.”

“About 39 percent said they thought their vote would not influence the results.”

Commentary;

This author has kept away from polls on the upcoming election and has written often that polls in Israel a too fluid (as the war situation is always too fluid) with changes almost daily, they are subject to cheating and padding if the telepollster doesn’t make the daily quota and they are subject to answers which are not indicative of how the person polled will truly vote in addition other variables mentioned in the email quoted above.

The point however is, the polling figures notwithstanding, this election has the potential to be razor-close, just as the Bibi election was in 1996.

As written previously, Ehud Olmert would be well advised not to bother
lighting his “victory” cigar, this one is much too close to call. MB