Overnight Election Politics …

[Reuters Report:] Israel’s Netanyahu Takes Big Lead in Likud Race[Poll: Feiglin @ 15%]

Excerpts:

“Polls in the Maariv and Yedioth Ahronoth newspapers found that Netanyahu would win about 45 percent of the vote in a Likud primary on December 19. That would be enough to avoid a second round, which polls predict Netanyahu would win soundly anyway.”

“Polls show Netanyahu’s main rival, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, winning between 22 and 30 percent of the vote in the Likud primary. … Moshe Feiglin would come in third with about 15 percent. ”

Commentary:

Moshe Feiglin didn’t make any extravagant or outlandish predictions as to the results of the Likud primaries. Thus, according to the current polls, he and Manhigut Yehudit are on a solid course 5 days before the primary vote. These comments don’t however contradict this author’s prior statements about not putting stock in the polls.

However, several polls which might be taken as indicators, when combined with apparent results of Manhigut Yehudit’s internal mobilization calls to it’s supporters, seem to indicate that the current level of Feiglin’s support in Likud is growing sharply. Therefore, the current polling results listed in this Reuters report seem realistic and representative of a sharp rise in support for Moshe Feiglin 5 days before the Primary vote .

Further, Feiglin, Manhigut Yehudit voters are motivated voters who will vote enmass in the Primaries, as opposed to the overall Likud voter turnout which, as exemplified by yesterday’s poor 29% showing at a Central Committee vote, promises to be mediocre at best.

This author’s prediction: Look for surprises on 19 December. No one will poll 40% of the Likud and Feiglin will make the Run-Off cut.

Likud Central Committee Okays Advancing 1st-Timers

Nof Will Appeal Monday’s Likud Vote [due to 29% voting, less than quorim]

Peretz to Meet With Expert [Stanley Greenberg] Election Advisor

Excerpt:

“Peretz is seeking to enlist the services of experts and seasoned politicians, battling an image of being inexperienced and perhaps incapable of dealing with foreign policy and security issues as he seeks to prepare for the 17th Knesset elections.”